Global smartphone shipments are projected to dip by 2.1% in 2026 as rising component costs bite into demand.
This updated outlook comes from Counterpoint Technology Market Research’s Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast, released in December 2025. The revised figures reflect a 2.6 percentage-point downward adjustment to the 2026 forecast, with the sharpest reductions concentrated among major Chinese OEMs such as HONOR, OPPO, and vivo.
In Counterpoint’s charts, the year-over-year shipment growth and the corresponding revisions for 2026 show the new December 2025 forecast alongside the older November 2025 projection for comparison. The shift underscores how pricing pressure is spreading across market tiers.
What’s driving the weakness? Counterpoint notes that the low end of the market (sub-$200) is bearing the brunt, as bill-of-materials (BoM) costs have climbed roughly 20%–30% since the start of the year. By contrast, mid- and high-end segments have seen price increases in the 10%–15% range.
A separate Counterpoint report focusing on memory solutions for Gen AI suggests memory prices could rise another 40% through the second quarter of 2026. If that happens, BoM costs could be 8% to over 15% higher than today’s already elevated levels.
Senior Analyst Yang Wang emphasizes that sharp price hikes in the low-end segment are not sustainable unless OEMs can pass costs to customers. If pass-through isn’t feasible, manufacturers are likely to prune their portfolios, which is already evidenced by a notable reduction in low-end SKUs.
As costs pass through and portfolios shrink, Counterpoint projects that average selling prices (ASPs) will rise by about 6.9% next year, up from a previous forecast of 3.9% issued in September 2025.
Among smartphone makers, those with scale, broad product lines (especially at the high end), and tight vertical integration are best positioned to withstand supply constraints.
Apple and Samsung appear the strongest bets to endure the upcoming quarters. Other players, particularly some Chinese OEMs, may struggle to balance market share with profit margins as the year unfolds.
To cope with tighter supplies, manufacturers are increasingly adopting mitigation strategies, including downgrading certain specifications. In recent models, components such as camera modules, periscope systems, displays, audio components, and memory configurations have been streamlined. Additional tactics include reusing existing components, narrowing product portfolios, steering consumers toward higher-specification “Pro” variants, and introducing new designs to spur upgrades.
What do you think about these trends? Do you expect more aggressively downgraded features to become the norm in low- and mid-range smartphones, or will improved supply and pricing dynamics alter this trajectory? Share your thoughts in the comments.
