When it comes to small-market teams like the Cincinnati Reds, one of their greatest advantages is the stability they can achieve. This stability comes from understanding exactly how much you're spending on players and what to expect from them season after season. Such predictability is crucial for success since it allows a team to operate without being entirely at the mercy of fluctuating market conditions.
So, when you've cultivated a promising young core and secured long-term contracts for your key players, you gain peace of mind regarding your payroll each year. This approach minimizes the risk of relying on mid-tier players, like Jeimer Candelario, which could lead to disastrous outcomes if those players don't perform as expected.
Other financially restrained teams in Major League Baseball have recognized the benefits of this strategy. For instance, the Kansas City Royals have repeatedly utilized this model, most recently securing Maikel Franco for five years after his standout season in 2025. Moreover, the Oakland Athletics have also followed suit, signing Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year, $86 million extension after his first full season in the big leagues.
This begs the question: when will Cincinnati join the trend of locking in extensions? Will they wait until they’ve missed their window of opportunity?
Cincinnati's only notable move in the realm of player extensions has been the six-year, $53 million agreement with Hunter Greene back in April 2023. While Greene’s injury history might make him an unexpected choice for such a long-term deal, his potential to perform as an elite pitcher justifies the risk.
Examining the Greene contract reveals some important insights. Even at its highest figures—$15.33 million in 2027 and $16.33 million in 2028—the Reds are still paying below the market rate. By covering a free-agent year and including a reasonable club option at $21 million for 2029, they ensure Greene remains part of the organization. Additionally, because the average annual value (AAV) of this deal is only $8.33 million, it aids in navigating luxury tax calculations.
However, it's clear that the Reds have let several opportunities slip through their fingers. Generally, teams in the league either secure top prospects shortly after their debut—like the Baltimore Orioles did with Samuel Basallo—or extend players right after they have breakout seasons, as demonstrated by the contracts given to Franco and Soderstrom.
This rationale indicates that Cincinnati may already be late to the party with Elly De La Cruz, whose impressive 2024 season captured attention. Now, following his solid performance in 2025, the expectations for any potential extension discussions have risen significantly.
Fortunately, there are still several players from the young core who could be considered for extensions. It would be wise for the Reds to initiate talks with Andrew Abbott this offseason; should the 26-year-old left-hander have another successful year, he could quickly become unaffordable for Cincinnati.
In line with the examples of top prospects, extending Sal Stewart and Chase Burns would also be prudent. While there's inherent risk in this, as neither has yet completed a full season in the majors, if they begin to reach their potential, their salaries could climb rapidly.
These types of extensions might mean the Reds miss out on some initial pre-arbitration savings, but the long-term financial benefits—covering arbitration years and potentially a couple of free-agent seasons—far outweigh that initial cost. This stability allows the Reds to have more financial flexibility to bring in additional pieces during the offseason, paving the way for a genuine championship contender.
There’s a clear reason why such agreements have become increasingly popular across the league. By hesitating to adapt to this trend, the Reds risk losing the invaluable young talent they've painstakingly developed.
