The 2026 Orioles: A Projected Turnaround
The Orioles' future looks bright, according to FanGraphs' projections, but it's not all smooth sailing. Here's a breakdown of what's in store for the team, with a focus on the potential of returning players and the impact of offseason additions.
The Returning Players: A Promise of Improvement
The core of the team is set to improve, with a significant leap in performance expected from several players. Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Samuel Basallo are all projected to see substantial increases in their fWAR (wins above replacement) ratings. Even team leader Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday are forecasted to improve, with one-win increases each. This internal improvement is a positive sign, but it's a delicate balance.
The Narrow Gap and the Impact of Acquisitions
The gap between the returning players' projected performance and the offseason additions is surprisingly narrow. This means that further acquisitions, especially in the rotation, could significantly impact the team's overall performance. The team's success in 2026 hinges on these additions, as the returning pitchers are expected to provide similar value to last year.
The Offseason Additions: A Necessary Hedge
To balance the risk of relying on the returning players, the Orioles made strategic offseason moves. Leody Taveras, Taylor Ward, and Pete Alonso were added to the lineup, offering versatility and significant fWAR contributions. On the pitching side, Zach Eflin, Andrew Kittredge, and Shane Baz were signed, providing much-needed depth and talent.
The Cost of Not Signing a Starting Pitcher
The team's success is not solely dependent on the returning players, but the offseason additions are crucial. The opportunity cost of not signing a starting pitcher is high, especially with the team's injury history. The Orioles are expected to make a deal for a starting pitcher soon, as it would be a waste to undermine the team's potential by being a pitcher short.
In conclusion, the 2026 Orioles have the potential to be a formidable team, but it's a delicate balance. The returning players offer promise, but the offseason additions are essential to ensure a successful season. With the right moves, the Orioles can turn their fortunes around and make a playoff run.
